Putting the TO Margin Under the Microscope
Published: Thu, October 30, 2008 - 1:33pm EDT
By Randy Lange
Lange is editor-in-chief of newyorkjets.com. He covered the Jets for 13 years for The Record of Hackensack, N.J.
File Under: Eric Mangini, Buffalo Bills, New England Patriots, Brett Favre, Damien Woody
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10/30 — The technical aspect of turnovers was one of the themes at head coach Eric Mangini's news conference this morning.
The subject comes up because of the Jets' recent struggles in the takeaway/giveaway area. The Jets have lost seven interceptions and two fumbles the last three games while opponents have lost no fumbles and been picked only once. That has produced a minus-8 margin for those three games and a minus-6 (tied for 28th in the NFL) for the year.
"The emphasis isn't on the statistic," Mangini said. "It's the process of getting those turnovers. We had the four sacks [vs. the Chiefs]. Usually when you bring the quarterback down four times, those are great opportunities to get turnovers, because quarterbacks are looking downfield, they tend not to have the best ball security, they hold the ball away from their body, up in the chest."
But the Jets forced no Chiefs fumbles nor any interceptions of Tyler Thigpen, although they came close.
"We thought we had a great chance there on the flat route right toward the end of the half before they hit the draw. Drew Coleman cut underneath the outcut," he said. "We didn't convert on that, so we spent some extra time yesterday working on the JUGS machine and emphasizing to the defensive backs the techniques of catching the ball — thumbs together, looking it into the tuck, all the things that go along with that step before you even worry about running with the football.
"So it's been a heavy emphasis on ball awareness, understanding where the ball is going to be, pressuring the football, being able to convert on those catches, as opposed to 'Hey, we've got to get a lot of turnovers.' "
While the Jets have been TO-challenged except for the Arizona game, the Green & White are in two sets of capable hands in overcoming minus turnover margins to produce wins and even playoff-caliber efforts.
Since 2004, 26 NFL teams started out with a minus-6 margin or lower after seven games, but only four reached the postseason. One was the '05 Patriots, for whom Mangini was the defensive coordinator. Another was the '04 Packers, with Brett Favre at the offensive controls. Here are those four playoff teams with records and margins after seven games and for the regular season:
| Year | Team | TO Margin | Record | Final Marg. | Final Rec. |
| 2004 | Green Bay | minus-8 | 3-4 | minus-14 | 10-6 |
| 2004 | St. Louis | minus-6 | 4-3 | minus-24 | 8-8 |
| 2005 | New England | minus-6 | 4-3 | minus-6 | 10-6 |
| 2005 | Washington | minus-9 | 4-3 | plus-1 | 10-6 |
There's also this: Seven previous times in franchise history the Jets were minus-6 or worse after seven games. Their best records were 2-5 in both 1962 and 1975. This year, of course, they're 4-3.
Weather or Not
Mangini had fond memories of taking the Jets outside of the Atlantic Health Training Center for Wednesday's practice, which featured some slightly extreme weather in advance of the game at Buffalo.
"Yesterday was a good opportunity to get out in the elements," he said. "In Buffalo there are dramatic shifts in weather. So we had a little sleet yesterday, it was cold — all the things we had to get adjusted to. The fellas lobbied pretty hard, seeing that we have such a beautiful indoor facility. We'll get there at some point, just not right now."
Today's weather in North Jersey is sunny and in the upper 40s. At the moment, the Sunday weather forecast for Buffalo is similar: partly cloudy and in the upper 40s. But as they say in Western New York, "If you don't like the weather now, wait a minute." (At least I've been told they say that around those parts.)
Tackle Absence
The injury report will be out after 4 p.m. but Mangini did announce that RT Damien Woody would miss his second straight practice today for personal reasons.
"He'll definitely play on Sunday," the coach said. "He's staying in touch with me and the coaches. He's able to watch practice through the system we have in place. When he does get back, which should be this evening, we'll spend a lot of extra time with him and get him caught up."
While the personal reasons will remain unspecified, Mangini assured: "He's fine himself. There's nothing physically wrong with him."
Fans Respond
Here's your chance to tell Randy what you think! Add a Comment | Hide All Show All (43)Ira Said:
Thu, October 30, 2008 - 2:24pm EDT"randy, You know they're right about that crazy Buffalo weather. The 06 game the day was beautiful until late 4th QT when a wind and rain storm blew in. You never know how it will be. The Jetts MUST stop turning over the ball or they will be on the losing end of games. they say INT's come in bunches well this week i predict the Jets get 2 INT's. A quess while why not Revis and Rhodes. GO JETS!!!!"
Jeremy Said:
Thu, October 30, 2008 - 3:18pm EDT"Revis should keep Evans in check like he has the other top WR's he's faced this year. My concern is if Harris is out who is going to fill his place? Too bad we drafted Gholston instead of a player that was going to get some reps and tackles. 6 tackles all year for a 1st rounder--that's solid! Yes I know he doesn't play much, but that's kinda the point! Hopefully Barton, Pace & Thomas can step up!"
Row Said:
Thu, October 30, 2008 - 3:19pm EDT"I predict Jets 28 Bills 14. Bills will struggle early with the running game, and have no where to turn to with the pressure received by Jets. We will force them to become pass happy and prove we are the rightful owners of first place in the division. I also see a new confidence in all players that will change the momentum heading into the STL game. Miller will make his comeback. "
Southernlady Said:
Thu, October 30, 2008 - 3:27pm EDT"Ok seriously Brett is going to turn the ball over at some point again. Are you guys going to start talking about the touchdowns and the yards gained, ever? I mean turn overs need to be reduced but they happen when you have a fearless QB. Y'all knew his int when you traded for him and still wanted the good stuff talk about that then. "
Southernlady Said:
Thu, October 30, 2008 - 3:33pm EDT"Also I read the transcript, who kept asking the Lions questions? I mean seriously who cares! Move on! I mean it was a dumb statement by whomever that said that someone was standing by their story. So what Brett is standing by his. "
rusty sanchez Said:
Thu, October 30, 2008 - 3:39pm EDT"you heard it here first the jets will annihilate the bills 24-3 on sunday "
James Said:
Thu, October 30, 2008 - 4:46pm EDT" dont forget the jets turnover margin was +6 in the az game....which puts them at -12 for the other 6 games...definitely a reason for concern...if they dont make the playoffs or lose a close playoff game something tells me a turnover will be what ends their season"
Ed in Tucson Said:
Thu, October 30, 2008 - 6:13pm EDT"I hope you’re right Rusty. We’ll need to drastically change our Offensive play calling to make that happen. BF needs to be mindful that long, time-consuming scoring drives keep the opposition’s O off the field. Grind out the yards on the ground and leave the quick strikes for when we’re behind. B Smith need to RUN a couple of end-arounds to make the D come up for run before throwing from that play"
sal Said:
Thu, October 30, 2008 - 6:16pm EDT"RANDY, Who will be startring in Harris's spot, and is what is Gholstons hold up, there was a knock on his desire in collage, surprized they drafted someone with that hanging over him"
Randy Lange Said:
"Sal, if David Harris can't play at Buffalo, David Bowens would start. He and Cody Spencer played for Harris in the last 2½ quarters vs. Kansas City."
jak jak,ex packer fan new jet fan Said:
Thu, October 30, 2008 - 6:29pm EDT"arizona beat the bills something like 41 to 17. though id imagine they did not commit 6 turnovers as they did against jets.also the bills schedule has not been that tough so far. so we do have a decent chance of winning on bills turf. GO JETS!!!"
Moshe Said:
Thu, October 30, 2008 - 7:03pm EDT"As much as I'd love to see it, I don't think we're going to see a much improved Jets team this week. The only reason they beat KC is because they are KC. Almost any other team would have beaten them.To win this week, The Jets must continue stopping the run, and on a offense, RUN THE FOOTBALL!! I know the Bills can stop it, but there must be balance. We need a mistake-free Favre.GO JETS!"
Moshe Said:
Thu, October 30, 2008 - 7:08pm EDT"If they lose, it will be 27-17 Bills. If the Jets win, it will e by a score of 17-14. Look for the first option to be the correct one. Although let me be clear: The Jets still have a very good chance to win, but in order to do say, they must play mistake-free football."
Ira Said:
Thu, October 30, 2008 - 7:30pm EDT"Randy, I like Bowens but i don't think he is up to playing 40-50 snaps. Spencer is more of an OLB but like you said played ILB last week. If Harris doesn't play i think Eric and Sutton will come up with a few wrinkles we haven't seen yet with some 4-3 type of lineup for some series."
Ken Said:
Thu, October 30, 2008 - 8:09pm EDT"Brian Schottie needs to just play basic football and stop trying to be cute. Getting Brett banged up the last few weeks trying to outsmart some of the worst defenses in the league. If a team is last in the league in rushing defense, you run the ball, PERIOD."
Howard Said:
Thu, October 30, 2008 - 8:16pm EDT"just got done looking at some stats and all i can say if we play a clean game no to and no penalties or limited penalties we have the better team,we're better on o and d thier spiecals are better then ours though,all we have to do is execute great game plans if we can get them.LETS GO JETS"
richard Said:
Thu, October 30, 2008 - 9:38pm EDT"Randy: Tell Eric to stop putting Brett in the meat grinder. Run the stupid ball ujntil the receivers have learned AND WILL RUN THE ROUTES without quitting. Bubba told those guys to all expect the ball. Brett is a go-to QB and can find the open man. They have been together long enough to KNOW THAT! At times the offense looks high school. The defense seems lost. "
mike ex jet fan Said:
Thu, October 30, 2008 - 10:13pm EDT" Hello ... Favre has 3 TD'S & 7 picks in 3 games right horrible #s for sure . Let me say this we are 3 0f 4 in those games .. I guarantee 90% of the QB'S if not all lose at best 3 0f 4 with those stats .. Point being even at his worst hes the best we have had here since B Joe... Stop complaining he will win more then he loses If every1 on the team pulls together plays with his heart were home "
Damone Said:
Fri, October 31, 2008 - 8:41am EDT"I hear what you're saying Row but come on,teams have been passing al over us this year.We have got to have better pass defense in order to say we are the best in the AFC East!This is a HUGE game. "
Damone Said:
Fri, October 31, 2008 - 8:42am EDT"Where is Gholston and J.Miller??!!"
Ira Said:
Fri, October 31, 2008 - 9:02am EDT"Revis must control or shutdown Evans this week for the Jets to win. Talk about a Jets killer. In the last 2 years [4 games] Evans has had 21 catches,408 yds and 2 TD's. For his career 8 games vs the Jets his #'s are 33-557 4 TD's with 46, 77, and 85 yds long TD's. Clearly Revis has his biggest test of the year this week. Time to shut him down. GO JETS!!!!"
fljetfan Said:
Fri, October 31, 2008 - 9:07am EDT"who can invision genius at the podium sun. at 4-4. " i thought we did a lot of good things out there today, we just need to stop the self inflicted wounds", etc... when will he be held accountable? observing chad with tuna only reiterates the FACT that this is a coaching issue. im trying to remain positive as im sure you all are as well, "let us pray". probably the make or break game for us "
fljetfan Said:
Fri, October 31, 2008 - 9:16am EDT"cont.. since we blew the n.e. game at home. when will this regime win the big game? im not sure they could win with brady and montana backing him up. prove me wrong genius! please prove me wrong! leon should get 20 touches min. best player on team isn't he? isn't he genius? "
Brian I Said:
Fri, October 31, 2008 - 9:33am EDT"Randy I agree with Ira in the aspect that I do not think Bowens can play all the snaps required in Harris's spot, lets see what the D can cook up as far as schemes to help out that position. The defense to me so far has definitely stepped up its game in the run department, but the pass defense is still soft and the lack of a "nose for the ball" is obvious. We have got to force turnovers."
Frank Said:
Fri, October 31, 2008 - 9:35am EDT"The usual kool aide drinkers are out in full force again which is stunning considering that even when the Jets were good they couldn't consistanly beat the Bills. Over the last 3 years in Buffalo they have averaged 10 points per game and have been soundly beaten. The Phins have been impressive in their 3 wins vs. Buffalo, Chargers and Pats meanwhile we have been extremely unimpressive in anything"
Frank Said:
Fri, October 31, 2008 - 9:42am EDT"This is the biggest game in Mangini's 3 year career with the Jets he must once and for all win a big game If they win this will be a big step forward if they lose it's season over and the "same ole Jets" Buffalo is ripe for the taking losing 2 of their last 3 with 2 key guys, Reed and Schoebel who have killed the Jets in the past out for the game. Mangini and staff are in the cross hairs this week"
Alan Said:
Fri, October 31, 2008 - 10:43am EDT"The run defense is stout!..Revis is solid..BUT teams are picking on Lowery...they should start justin miller and see what happens. Use lowery in nickel & dime packages. And Rhodes needs to step it up a little. Bowens is not an every down MLB...Might want to try moving Thomas inside and give Gholston a few reps."
Mike Said:
Fri, October 31, 2008 - 10:44am EDT"In my opinion if the Jets can win the turnover battle this week they can win without a problem. We need a more balanced offense to go to Brett's strengths like play action. As far as the defense what happened to the aggressive defense we saw in the first half of the Arizona game? since the second half of that game the defense has looked soft. they need the hunger back!! Go Jets!!!!"
Evan Said:
Fri, October 31, 2008 - 11:06am EDT"Frank , I'm sorry, but its halfway through the season and we are 4-3. It is not a must win, and it is far from the "biggest game in Mangini's" tenure as Jets HC. Just use a little rational. Plenty of teams make the playoffs w/ a 4-4 first half and plenty do it with worse records after 8 games. Just try and tone down the drama, although i know that's very difficult for you."
Mike Said:
Fri, October 31, 2008 - 11:15am EDT"I do think the run defense has been very good. Jenkins was a great pickup this year. The pressure on the quarterback hasn't been too bad, I believe they are 7th in the league in sacks. They need to keep that pressure on and the defensive backs need to step up and make some plays. I agree with you Alan that Revis is solid and have Rhodes work with Lowery on pass cov. they woulndt pick on him"
Ken Said:
Fri, October 31, 2008 - 11:37am EDT"The coaches and players always try to put a spin on a win is just a win, but HOW you WIN & HOW much you win by, also tells you something about your team. The next 5 games for the JETS are going against REALLY good teams. If the JETS barely beat MIAMI in their 1st game. & LOST to Oakland & BARLEY beat KC. Oakland & KC are the EASY part of their schedule. How do you expect them to beat good teams?"
Tim Said:
Fri, October 31, 2008 - 12:02pm EDT"If the JETS OFFENSE line can't block for Farve long enough for Farve to do (Play Action Fakes), then the JETS spent ALL this money on an offense line that can't even block! That would be another major screw up for Mangini & Tannenbaum. I think I even heard Mangini say in the press conf after the KC game that part of the reason Farve was in the Shot Gun so much was to get less pressure on Farve. "
Frank Said:
Fri, October 31, 2008 - 3:38pm EDT"Evan wrongo buddy with Mangini not having won but 2 quality games in the last 3 years and with all the money spent and his personnel in place its time to start winning tough games. Losing this game will be huge with the upcoming schedule there are no easy games Mangini needs to show he can win tough games. On the contrary you need to get educated about the playoff scenerios 4-4 in the AFC is bleak"
MikeMc Said:
Fri, October 31, 2008 - 6:20pm EDT"Frank my friend you are right in the fact that 4-4 is bleak in the AFC & the jets, not just Mangini but the whole squad needs to win tough games at some point. I agree this is a must win if we have the division title in mind , tick tock ."
Susan in Wisconsin Said:
Sat, November 1, 2008 - 4:17am EDT"I've followed the Packers since 1960 & Favre specifically since 9/20/92, when he won his 1st game in GB. If the team's not playing well together, #4 puts it on his shoulders to win...which sometimes results in turnovers & losses that should have been wins. So, Jets, let's get your stuff together, protect Brett in the pocket, and "get open" receivers! And, yes, a good running game would help a ton!"
Susan in Wisconsin Said:
Sat, November 1, 2008 - 4:29am EDT"Just wanted to add this link, for those of you that might be interested: http://www.greenbaypressgazette.com/ic/favre/timeline.shtml Sometimes, if it would seem that Brett wasn't playing his best game, I'd go back & read this stuff (starting at the bottom & working my way up, past to present) & be amazed all over again about what #4 has accomplished & still does. Don't ever count Brett out!!!!"
chris giarrusso Said:
Sat, November 1, 2008 - 7:01am EDT"where is are defense you can not allow a quarterback this much time we the jets can not get no pressure on the quarterback so screw it just blitz 70 or 80 percent of the time you can not expect your defensive backs to cover forever"
Frank Said:
Sat, November 1, 2008 - 8:44am EDT"Mickey Mc glad to see we agree on something. However it is the coaches responsibilty to correctly employ personnel on the field as well as putting them in the best postion to utilize their talents. Game planning, play calling and in game adjustments are the coaching staffs responsibilty and is the key to successful regimes. Thus far Mangini and crew have failed miserably I do hope that changes."
matt from jerz Said:
Sat, November 1, 2008 - 10:26am EDT" what is goin on with GHOLSTEN?????? we picked him in the first round for what???? does he even play?"
Ed in Tucson Said:
Sat, November 1, 2008 - 11:14am EDT"What's the cliche, a good offense is the best defense? Jets need to spread opposing D with sweeps & pitch-outs, then run, run, run between the tackles. That way Favre will be able to use the play-action effectively. The main thing is you have to keep them guessing, mix it up. The worse thing a team can be is predictable. Our play calling has been predictable, that's why we've had such a tough time"
lavenderg Said:
Sat, November 1, 2008 - 5:24pm EDT"if mangini has to devote a great deal of practice to emphasize the fundamentals of properly catching the football with juggs machines were are ****., This guy reminds me of a gym teacher rather than a coach, please for once can we have a solid game plan. Why do i have a bad feeling about tommorrow? and why do i put myself through this every year? Please just once can we win a big game on the road"
paul egan Said:
Sun, November 2, 2008 - 8:00am EDT"hey randy(?) went to see how someone responded (if at all) to my post and saw that it never appeared. do you have to select posts due to volume or other reasons?"
Randy Lange Said:
"paul, I don't remember seeing anything from you. Comments get declined if they contain obscenities or vulgarities, namecalling, or racist, sexist or homophobic language, to name a few reasons. It's also possible for a comment to be accidentally deleted, although that happens rarely. Hit me again."
Nikki Said:
Sat, December 6, 2008 - 9:21am EDT"Hello, I love listening to Paving the Way each week. Tony you recently rewarded 100 students of the “Be a Champion writing contest“. Tony do you have children or do you plan to have children. Congratulation on winning 2008 Walter Payton Man of the year award. "
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MikeMc Said:
Thu, October 30, 2008 - 2:16pm EDT"STOP THE TURNOVERS,BRETT !!! We have no chance in Buffalo if Brett continues his reckless play. Hope D. Woody is O.K."
Offensive Comment?