ESPN Notes Green & White Improvement

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Randy's Radar

ESPN Notes Green & White Improvement

Published: Tue, May 13, 2008 - 6:15pm EDT
Randy Lange

By Randy Lange

Lange is editor-in-chief of newyorkjets.com. He covered the Jets for 13 years for The Record of Hackensack, N.J.


File Under: ESPN, Eric Mangini, Vernon Gholston, John Clayton

05/13 — ESPN is giving the Green & White grudging respect as a team on the rise.

On Monday, John Clayton from ESPN.com (I sometimes like to call him John The Clayton from ESPN The Magazine) pegs the Jets as one of his Five Surprise Teams to Watch in 2008.

Clayton slots the Jets at No. 5, right behind the Bills, saying the Jets "are operating like a team trying to make a big move" and stating that if they "find a way to get into the top 10 in rushing, they have a chance for a three-game improvement."

Just two quibbles with Clayton's analysis. What the heck is "the .020 formula"? He says that is how he calculates the Jets' schedule to be 3.3 games easier this year, with a .457 opponents' winning percentage, than last year's .523. I'm a big fan of mathematical widgets, and I'm guessing this formula is based on perhaps taking calculating the schedule strength of the opponents' schedules and massaging it to spit out win improvement or decline.

But has anyone else heard of the .020 formula? That one needs explaining, at least for me.

More important, in Clayton's parting shot, he says that head coach Eric Mangini "also hopes that [Calvin] Pace, Vernon Gholston and [Kris] Jenkins can pull the Jets' defense out of the bottom four in football."

Come again? Had Clayton specified run defense, he'd have been on solid ground — they finished fourth-worst (29th overall) in rushing yards allowed per game.

But someone is going to have to explain to me how a unit that used a strong second-half kick to finish 18th in total yardage allowed, ninth against the pass and 19th in points given up qualifies for "the bottom four in football."

In fact, I started crunching some numbers that I should've checked out a few months ago and came up with these two startling charts showing the top NFL defenses in yardage yielded and touchdowns allowed (factoring out opponents' return TDs) over the final eight weeks of the season:

 Team Yards/Game Team TDs/Game
 1. Tampa Bay 267.9 1. JETS 1.43
 2. JETS 269.7 2. Indianapolis 1.63
 3. Jacksonville 273.8     Philadelphia 1.63
 4. Indianapolis 277.9     Cleveland 1.63
 5. San Diego 285.5 5. SD/CIN 1.75

I should note that the Jets, Patriots, Bucs and Texans played seven games over those eight weeks due to their late byes. But if we made it the last nine weeks of the season, the Jets' yardage ranking would drop to fourth because in their Week 9 game they allowed 431 yards to Washington, but the Redskins' one TD that day would allow the Jets to maintain their defensive-TD top rank.

Now I'm not saying the Jets were D-lightful all season long or that they didn't start slow or couldn't use some consistency or don't need to improve in '08. But "bottom four"? Does not compute.

Still, it's always nice to have Mr. Clayton's encouragement.

ESPN.com's NFL Power Rankings: May 2008 Edition, while not receiving input from Clayton, tell a similar tale for the Green & White, noting that the Jets have made the biggest rise from the 2007 end-of-season rankings, from 30th then to 21st now. Mike Sando's skinny: "An offseason spending spree upgraded the roster without answering the Jets' most pressing question: Do they have the right QB?"

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Fans Respond

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Larry Said:

Sat, May 17, 2008 - 9:41am EDT

"Scott. Good points but youre missing the big picture. PREDICTABLE! CP physical shortcomings limit not only his ability,but the coaches ability to design plays. D's read him like a cheap novel. The 10-6 season showed it. They figured out the same scheme week after week and near the end they were shutting it down quite effectively. We dont need any more Vinnie dink and dunk crap. Kellen OR BUST !!!!"

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irish JET Said:

Sun, May 18, 2008 - 8:09pm EDT

"SCOTT, i hear ya. i like chad to,but i dunno, we need to try something new. maybe this kid ainge can do some good things for us as well. the worst thing that could happen to the jets this year is all of the whealing, and dealing with free agency and trades,go to waste on QB issues. It is nice to know our D will be much improved this year, to help the misteps at QB,whoever it is.New England S@#$%!"

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RAY Said:

Mon, May 19, 2008 - 11:48pm EDT

"ok the two rotator cuff injuries didnt seem to affect him when he was throwing 40 yd passes to laverneus. the arm hing is the most ridiculous thing ever. cp is smart and acurate. so he doesnt throw the ball 70 yds who cares. carson palmer and drew brees had really good seasons last year with their big arms. All you need is a qb who can manage the game and get the first downs. as for tj...."

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