Tom, Eli, TD Drives and QB Turnovers

Randy's Radar

Tom, Eli, TD Drives and QB Turnovers

Published: Sun, February 3, 2008 - 1:55pm EST
Randy Lange

By Randy Lange

Lange is editor-in-chief of newyorkjets.com. He covered the Jets for 13 years for The Record of Hackensack, N.J.


File Under: Tom Brady, Eli Manning, Super Bowl XLII, Peyton Patriots Giants Phoenix

02/03 — Quarterbacks will always be in the Super spotlight, in the forefront for winning the Super Bowl MVP trophy. In that regard, New England's Tom Brady and New York's Eli Manning have been dissected every which way to Sunday this past week.

I'm not going to tell you anything you don't know, but I have some numbers that maybe you haven't seen that indicate the trends today's two field generals have been following this season and in recent years for you to digest in the hours before Super Bowl XLII kicks off at University of Phoenix Stadium.

The Patriots, of course, set many team milestones in their perfect-so-far season, among them most regular-season points (589) and touchdowns (75). Brady was a major part of that as he engineered 66 TDs in 156 drives.

That 42.3 percent TD drive percentage is simply off the charts, probably also an NFL record although I'm not sure even Elias has kept track of QB drive engineering stats long enough to confirm that. I can tell you that unofficially no quarterback came even close to that the last 11 seasons. Here are the top five RS TD drive percentages since 1997:

QB, Team Year Drives TDs Pct.
Tom Brady, NE 2007 156 66 42.3
Peyton Manning, IND 2004 157 59 37.6
Kurt Warner, STL 2000 108 39 36.1
Peyton Manning, IND 2007 150 50 33.3
Kurt Warner, STL 2001 173 56 32.4
Trent Green, KC 2004 177 57 32.2

But some NFL pundits and Giants fans have suggest that Brady's three interceptions against San Diego are an indication that the Patriots are vulnerable in the takeaway area. In fact, it was the second three-turnover game for Brady in four weeks.

Yet it has to be remembered that the Pats won both those games solidly — by 28-7 over the Dolphins and 21-12 over the Chargers. Also, going back to TD drives, Brady generated three sixes vs. San Diego and in his two playoff games he has a 36.8 TD drive percentage, which at the moment is second-highest in the last 11 seasons, behind only Peyton Manning's 44.4 in the 2003 playoffs for the Colts.

Not to mention that this regular season Brady gave the ball away 12 times (8 INTs, 4 FUMs), a career low since he became the New England starter in 2001.

For Eli, the situation is somewhat reversed. In the regular season the Giants QB and Peyton's kid brother personally turned the ball over 27 times (20 INTs, 7 FUMs), a career high, and his TD drive rate of 20.7, while decent, was virtually identical to the 20.5 rates he put up in each of the previous two seasons.

But Manning's postseason has been the model of efficiency. He's thrown no picks and lost no fumbles, a three-game stretch of "perfection" that equals the longest of his career, early in the 2005 season.

Will one of the starting QBs today return to form? Will Brady not provide any giveaways as has been his style? Or will Manning turn the ball over as he had done as recently as this regular season? The answer to those questions could be one of the keys to today's outcome.

To Roof or Not to Roof

The first inclement weather of any kind this week began this morning when a light rain started to fall on downtown Phoenix, and the forecast for Glendale, a half-hour away, is for showers and then steadier rain tonight.

That raises the question of whether the retractable roof over University of Phoenix Stadium will be opened or closed for tonight's opening kickoff around 4:30 pm MST, 6:30 pm EST. ESPN has stated that the roof will remain closed until close to kickoff, when NFL officials will determine whether to open it or keep it sealed.

Regardless, the stadium's already legendary grass tray field, with that new layer of sod laid down several weeks ago after the Fiesta Bowl, should be in fine shape. And it will truly feel different for the players on both teams.

The Patriots have played only three games on grass this season, all wins (at Cincinnati, Miami and Baltimore). The Giants have played six games on grass, all wins (at Washington, vs. Miami in London, Chicago, Philadelphia, Tampa Bay and Green Bay).

Our Game Plan

We're under no illusions at newyorkjets.com that your computer will be on auto refresh to catch our observations during today's game. But as we did during the Jets' season, we'll provide some streamlined quarter-by-quarter observations during the game.

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